Under bullish or optimistic case scenario, the Sensex is expected to reach 115,836 and the Nifty 43,876 by the financial year end 2028 (FY28), says a report published on Friday.
However, under bear or pessimistic case scenario, Ventura, a broking firm, expects the Sensex at 1,04,804 and the Nifty at 39,697 by FY28.
The report said Nifty will operate in a specified range of price-to-earnings (PE) for the next three years on the back of robust earnings expansion. The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) on earnings per share (EPS) is set at 12–14% till FY28.
“In the last 10 years, the Indian economy has demonstrated resilience and clocked the highest GDP growth as a large economy despite global headwinds of NBFC crisis, Covid 19, Russia-Ukraine war and the recent uncertainty on US President Donald Trump tariff,” said Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura.
He also reiterated that positive risk mitigation elements are likely to outweigh current economic concerns, allowing India to reach a target GDP growth rate of 7.3% by FY30(E).
By FY28, the report expects the benchmark indices to indicate PE multiples of 21x in a bull market and 19x in a bearish market. Target EPS values have been put at 5,516 for the Sensex and 2,089 for the Nifty 50.
The report also praised India's resilience of the last ten years. From struggling with the "Fragile Five" tag to wading through demonetisation, GST implementation, a worst-ever NBFC crisis, and successive COVID-19 waves, the nation has been able to remain on a growth path.
Even more pervasive geopolitical and international economic disruptions, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the trade policies of Donald Trump's presidency, have not stopped India's march, highlighting the high fundamentals of the economy.
As of halfway through Q1 FY26 earnings season, 159 companies have reported their numbers, showing a widespread performance across sectors. The engineering, manufacturing, and services sectors have been the standout performers, with the consumption, commodities, and pharma sectors showing consistent performance, the report further mentioned.
