The Indian government on Wednesday resoundingly dismissed a recent Reuters article challenging the credibility of official unemployment rates in the country.
The report, the Ministry of Labour & Employment claimed, was based on subjective judgments by around 50 unidentified economists, and not on empirical, verifiable information.
"The article doubts the accuracy of official estimates without quoting any independent, data-driven empirical analysis. The representation of a worsening employment situation in India finds itself contradicted by strong, credible and internationally acceptable official data," the ministry stated in its reply.
The government complained about the methodology of the Reuters article, claiming its use of anonymous expert opinion was not transparent and did not meet minimal research standards. The report did not reveal the economists' identities, the criteria for how they were chosen, or whether their opinions constitute an even blend of experts from academia, public policy, or the private sector.
This vagueness, the ministry noted, invites bias and ideological predispositions. It also faulted the silence on specifics about the structure of questions asked, the method of opinion gathering, or any statistical testing — all of which are essential in ensuring accuracy and replicability in such studies.
Though recognizing that the opinions of experts are valuable as context, the ministry insisted that such cannot replace complete, methodologically sound surveys.
By way of contrast, the government pointed out the reliability of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) that the National Statistical Office (NSO), working under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), conducts. The PLFS is the world's best-known survey with a strong methodology and size, employing a stratified, multi-stage random sampling scheme that cuts across a wide range of geographies, both rural and urban, in India.
From January 2025 onwards, the PLFS has been releasing monthly estimates along with its quarterly and yearly data outputs. This has facilitated more intensive and frequent monitoring of employment patterns nationwide.
The ministry emphasized that data in PLFS conform to international standards, specifically the definitions stipulated by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), such as Usual Principal Status (UPS) and Current Weekly Status (CWS). Its procedures conform to procedures adopted by principal world institutions like the World Bank, UNDP, and ILOstat, making its data internationally comparable.
Another distinguishing feature of the PLFS, according to the ministry, is its transparency. The NSO makes all supporting documents — including survey methodology, sampling frameworks, weighting procedures, and error margins — publicly accessible. This allows academics, policymakers, and global organisations to independently analyse and validate the findings.
In addition, the PLFS reflects the dynamic and structural dimensions of India's employment market, including seasonal patterns in employment change, rural-urban migration trends, and the contribution of the informal sector to urban economies.
Internationally, the PLFS is a principal source of data for monitoring progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and is utilized by institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and the ILO for comparative analysis of labour markets, adding further strength to its credibility.
Supported by recent PLFS data, the government pointed to remarkable improvement in India's labor scenario:
The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) for people 15 years and older improved from 49.8% in 2017–18 to 60.1% in 2023–24.
The Worker Population Ratio (WPR) went up from 46.8% to 58.2% over the same timeframe.
The Unemployment Rate (UR) fell substantially from 6.0% to 3.2%.
Of special interest, young people's unemployment fell from 17.8% to 10.2%, which is below the international rate of youth unemployment of 13.3%, as quoted in the ILO's World Employment and Social Outlook 2024.
"These figures debunk the myth of mass youth disengagement, and support firmer labour market engagement," the ministry concluded.
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